On a quiet Sunday evening in the heart of a nation at war, the unthinkable flickered across millions of smartphone screens, jolting Ukrainians from their fragile routines. The Air Alert application, a digital guardian that has become as essential as food and water in a country enduring relentless missile strikes, suddenly announced that a radiation threat had been declared in Kyiv. For the next few minutes, a harrowing cascade of terrifying alerts followed: a nuclear alert across Ukraine, a chemical attack on the capital, and even street fighting erupting within the city. Then, just as abruptly, the all-clear signals arrived,…

The American midterm elections have always been a high-stakes ritual, but this year the drama is playing out on a new kind of stage. Alongside the television pundits and the endless polling numbers, there are now digital prediction markets—platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi—where anyone with a credit card can wager real money on who will win a Senate seat, control the House, or take a state’s electoral votes. It feels like a game, a futuristic way of engaging with democracy, but it is also something much more serious. The percentages that flash across these platforms look like authoritative data, and…