In the years after the 2016 United States presidential election, something unsettling became clear to researchers at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS): the digital world had become a battlefield, and state-backed, algorithmically amplified disinformation was a weapon that most governments were not prepared to understand, let alone counter. At the time, this was still a largely understudied area, and RSIS researchers felt a growing urgency to make sense of it. In 2017, the school convened its first workshop on the subject, pulling together experts from sociology, psychology, communications, and military strategy—fields that rarely spoke to one another but each held a piece of the puzzle. What emerged from those conversations was a clear consensus: fighting disinformation would require a multi-pronged approach, one that combined technical knowledge, social insight, and strategic thinking. When Singapore later decided it needed a dedicated law to deal with online falsehoods, RSIS researchers were called on to contribute to the select committee process, helping shape what would eventually become the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act, which came into effect in October 2019. As RSIS commemorates its 30th anniversary in 2026, its leaders reflect on a journey that began in 1996 as the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies and has since grown into a think-tank and graduate school tackling a broad range of security and strategic issues. Benjamin Ang, head of RSIS’ Centre of Excellence for National Security, remembers those early days well. He notes that while many individuals were focused on their own narrow slices of the disinformation problem, RSIS researchers believed the issue was too big and too interconnected to be left fragmented. That conviction drove them to constantly run workshops where global experts—many of whom had never met one another—could compare notes and build a fuller picture. “We get the most complete picture that we can give, and we invite policymakers to this,” Ang said. It was a way of turning scattered dots into a coherent map, giving decision-makers the clarity they needed in a fog of digital confusion.
One of RSIS’ most meaningful contributions to Singapore’s security came in the early 2000s, when the country was grappling with the aftermath of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) arrests and the challenge of rehabilitating detained operatives. The Government turned to Muslim religious leaders, forming the Religious Rehabilitation Group (RRG) to engage the detainees. These religious scholars understood, through their own training, how extremist ideology deviated from the true teachings of Islam. But as Kumar Ramakrishna, who became RSIS dean in 2023, explained, they also needed to understand how that ideology had evolved and why it held such power over its followers. This was not simply a matter of theology; it was a matter of history, politics, and geopolitics. Many people mistakenly believed JI was a creation of Al-Qaeda, but its roots actually traced back to Darul Islam, an Indonesian group formed in 1942. In the 1980s, members of that movement travelled to Afghanistan to fight the Soviets, where they came under the influence of global jihadist figures and their vision of a worldwide caliphate. By 1993, JI had been established with the aim of creating a pan-South-east Asian caliphate. To help the religious scholars grasp this complex backdrop, some of them attended postgraduate training at RSIS. Kumar noted that while knowledge of religious doctrine was essential, it was not enough on its own to address the root causes of extremism. The training gave these scholars “a very good holistic understanding of the big picture of extremist Islam at that time.” Over the years, the threat has evolved dramatically, with self-radicalisation and the spread of far-right ideas becoming increasingly prominent. RSIS has continued to support the RRG, providing a platform for studying these shifting threats. Today, RSIS academics are themselves part of the RRG, working alongside case officers and psychologists to rehabilitate detainees. Several Ministry of Home Affairs officers also receive training at RSIS, gaining what Kumar calls “intellectual scaffolding”—a wider academic grounding not just in counter-terrorism but in geopolitics, which helps them develop a broader, more holistic view of international trends that shape the evolution of transnational terrorism.
Beyond counter-terrorism, RSIS has carved out a significant role in reviewing policies and policy decisions, and in helping the public and international partners understand their implications. Ang pointed to an analysis done in 2024 after authorities blocked ten fake websites linked to foreign actors. These sites mimicked typical news portals and were seen as potential channels for disinformation campaigns against Singapore. RSIS researchers did a deep dive into the websites—where they came from, what they were doing—and were able to compare them with global disinformation tactics, explaining the threat in a way that everyone could understand. This kind of work requires a broad conception of security, one that includes awareness of the subtle vulnerabilities that can be exploited. Leong Chan-Hoong, head of RSIS’ Social Cohesion Research Programme, has spent years studying one such vulnerability: the delicate fabric of social trust in a multi-ethnic society. Using ten years of data from Singapore’s Ethnic Integration Policy, Leong examined how different communities settle within housing estates. He found that areas like Bishan and Toa Payoh had a larger proportion of Chinese residents, while Malay home buyers had gravitated toward places like Marsiling and Pasir Ris, and Indians were more dispersed across estates. One striking finding was that neighbourhoods with a higher concentration of permanent residents and ethnic minorities reported lower social trust. But there was also hope: having a shared space like a community club could meaningfully bring diverse communities together, although the positive effect diminished with distance and faded beyond roughly 120 metres. In 2018, Leong proposed a somewhat controversial idea for better social mixing: relocating good schools away from popular areas. At the time, some people thought it was radical. But in 2023, Anglo-Chinese School (Primary) announced it would move from Barker Road to Tengah in 2030, part of a major effort to provide greater accessibility for as many pupils as possible. Leong himself does not know whether his research influenced that decision. “But it doesn’t matter,” he said. “The fact is that these are the things that we do to understand social cohesion and how we can foster the mindshare of living together.” It is a reminder that research often works in indirect ways, planting seeds that may bloom years later in unexpected places.
Looking ahead, RSIS is increasingly focused on the intersection of artificial intelligence with other emerging domains such as space and quantum technology. Ang highlighted one example: using AI to process data from satellite imagery. This may sound like a niche technical topic, but it has profound implications for security, governance, and international relations. RSIS is examining various aspects of this convergence, including how different countries are approaching governance and what lessons Singapore might draw from them. “We propose options based on what we see around the world, and our analysis is based on how we think it applies to Singapore,” Ang said. This forward-looking mindset was echoed during a lecture in September commemorating RSIS’ 30th anniversary, when Defence Minister Chan Chun Sing spoke about the organisation’s role. He said that interpreting ongoing change was a necessary but insufficient competency. RSIS needed to go beyond interpreting current events and “ponder the improbable”—a phrase that captures the school’s foundational motto. This is what Kumar describes as being “a canary in a coal mine.” The idea is not just to react to what is happening today, but to sense what could happen tomorrow, to detect the faint, early signs of danger before they become impossible to ignore. In a world where technological change is accelerating and threats are becoming more diffuse, that kind of horizon-scanning is invaluable. It is about asking the uncomfortable questions early, challenging assumptions, and preparing for scenarios that seem unlikely until they suddenly become real. For RSIS, this means constantly pushing beyond the comfort zone of conventional analysis, drawing on diverse expertise, and maintaining a willingness to explore the unknown.
One of the more troubling trends RSIS researchers are watching closely is the rise of violence that seems to lack any coherent ideological motivation. In the past, extremism was often tied to a clear belief system, however twisted. But recent cases in the region suggest a shift. In November 2025, a school bombing in Indonesia was orchestrated by a teenager who had far-right inscriptions on his toy gun but showed little real understanding of the ideology behind them. This is a deeply unsettling development. It suggests that violence can become an end in itself, detached from any meaningful political or religious purpose—a kind of nihilistic impulse that is much harder to counter with traditional deradicalisation programmes. Kumar noted that understanding this new trend may require a different approach. Instead of trying to dismantle a specific ideology, perhaps the focus should be on building youth resilience against any kind of extremist idea, including the nihilistic notion that violence is good. This is a more challenging task because it is not about correcting a false belief; it is about addressing a deeper sense of alienation, thrill-seeking, or despair. It calls for a broader societal response, one that involves families, schools, communities, and mental health support, not just security agencies. RSIS, with its multidisciplinary approach, is well positioned to help policymakers think through these complexities. The school’s role is not to provide simple answers but to offer frameworks for understanding, to surface the nuances, and to equip practitioners with the intellectual tools they need to navigate an increasingly unpredictable world.
In many ways, RSIS has become a bridge between the world of ideas and the world of action. It is not an ivory tower institution; its research is intended for practitioners in government, not just academics. Over the past three decades, it has supported policymaking in Singapore by helping authorities anticipate developments “to prevent them from being blindsided,” as Kumar put it. The Government has its own agencies and internal analytical capabilities, but RSIS exists to support that effort, offering an independent, academically grounded perspective that can challenge assumptions and broaden horizons. This partnership has taken many forms: contributing to legislation like POFMA, training religious scholars and security officers, analysing disinformation networks, studying social cohesion, and exploring the security implications of emerging technologies. Behind all of this is a simple but powerful belief: that good policy requires deep understanding, and that understanding requires constant learning, questioning, and collaboration. As RSIS marks its 30th anniversary, the challenges it was created to address have only grown more complex. Disinformation is more sophisticated, extremism is more fragmented, technology is more pervasive, and the geopolitical landscape is more uncertain. But the school’s founding spirit—to ponder the improbable, to bring together diverse voices, and to serve the public good—remains as relevant as ever. For the researchers, educators, and practitioners who have passed through its halls, RSIS is more than an institution; it is a community of people committed to making sense of a messy world and helping others do the same. And as the next thirty years unfold, that mission will only become more vital.