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Picking and betting numbers and the insidious flow of handicapping misinformation

News RoomBy News RoomMay 24, 20264 Mins Read
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Frank Cotolo’s journey into the world of pari-mutuel betting began in the early 1970s, a time when life was a whirlwind of post-college adjustments and lingering parental cohabitation. New York City’s Off-Track Betting (OTB) parlors were sprouting up like mushrooms, conveniently close to his Brooklyn home. Yet, Frank wasn’t immediately drawn into their magnetic pull, despite a burgeoning affection for harness racing, nurtured by Stan Bergstein’s captivating TV broadcasts. He devoured every detail, learning the nuances of the sport, but the concept of handicapping – risking hard-earned money on horses trotting and pacing in circles – felt alien, almost absurd. His initial foray into an OTB parlor was as a bystander, accompanying a friend who, with a casual air, placed a two-dollar Triple bet. The friend’s method was a revelation, or perhaps, a comedic act: he chose horses whose post numbers, when converted to letters, spelled “BAD.” This seemingly nonsensical approach, devoid of any discernible logic or “science,” struck Frank as pure guesswork, akin to a church basement bingo game or an illegal numbers racket. He dismissed it as “nuts.”

The “nuts” quickly turned into a moment of stunned disbelief. The next day, his friend, the one who bet on “BAD,” actually hit the Triple, pocketing a tidy hundred-something dollars. This unexpected win, fueled by a seemingly random, almost playful wager, chipped away at Frank’s skepticism. Soon after, a neighbor’s casual remark echoed in his mind: “You got to know how to bet.” It wasn’t just about picking numbers, the neighbor clarified; it was about understanding how to strategically wager money to generate more money. This wasn’t handicapping in the traditional sense, but something far more foundational, something that, dare he utter the word, sounded like…math. Frank’s relationship with mathematics, he admitted, mirrored the tragic dynamic between Marc Anthony and Julius Caesar – he, the steadfast Caesar, resisted a deep dive into numbers. His reliance on Stan Bergstein’s show for racing insights felt sufficient, a comfortable intellectual limit.

A chance encounter with Kenny, an old high school friend, provided the catalyst for a shift in Frank’s perspective. Kenny, a seasoned horseplayer, had always been absorbed in the racing section of the New York Daily News during their high school lunch breaks. Now, over coffee, Frank confided his desire to understand handicapping better, specifically for trotters. Kenny, a natural mentor, offered a quick lesson but also pointed him towards an easier, albeit less personal, route: a slide-rule product. This device, for a modest $25, promised to analyze various race data and assign numerical ratings to each horse. The highest number, Kenny assured him, was the winning horse, and the subsequent numbers would guide his Exacta and Triple bets. “You’ll make it back fast,” Kenny promised, a siren song to Frank’s burgeoning interest.

Emboldened, Frank bought the slide-rule. His first win bet, on the horse with the highest number, was a crushing defeat. His second, on a massive favorite, yielded a paltry 40-cent profit. Within a week, the promised quick returns had evaporated, replaced by a $20 deficit. Undeterred, Frank sought alternative methods. He consulted the public handicappers in the Sports Eye newspaper, only to find their grid of picks and comments no more reliable than his costly slide-rule. A paperback book on harness racing handicapping, brimming with complex jargon, proved equally unhelpful for a beginner. The author’s intelligence shone through, but his guidance offered no practical advantage.

Frank found himself in a frustrating cycle, shuffling through various handicapping methods, spending evenings at OTB parlors when not at work. The losses mounted, the wins were fleeting. He realized he was battling himself, falling into the common trap of “betting to break even,” a desperate attempt to recoup losses. Occasional trips to the track with friends, each armed with their own “system,” only highlighted the shared struggle. Each of them, too, was locked in a losing battle against their own flawed approaches. It was at this juncture that Frank made a crucial decision, a turning point in his nascent journey. He resolved to invest more time, delve deeper into the mathematical underpinnings of handicapping, and, with diligent effort, transform himself into a professional-level handicapper, aiming to produce consistent profits. The journey, he hinted, was just beginning.

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