The Government of India (GoI) has claimed that its policies have generally driven rapid economic growth, making it the world’s fourth-largest economy. According to data from the World Bank, India’s income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient, has dropped significantly. Between 2011-12 and 2022-23, India’s Gini coefficient fell from 28.8 to 25.5, placing it as one of the few countries worldwide ranking fourth for the most equitable society. However, this claim is misleading and is fundamentally flawed. Behind these numbers lie multiple caveats and other critical issues that undermine the assertion of a reduction in consumption inequality.
The report’s data is problematic, as it conflates two different expenditure surveys. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) of 2022-23, used to calculate inequality, is less comparable to the earlier data due to methodological differences. Recent advancements in consumption surveys are still available, but they do not track the same cola as the 2011-12 data, making the comparisons invalid. Additionally, the report incorrectly attributes improvements in the global adequacy of inequality measures like the Global Development Index (GDI) to claims of “income inequality” in the country. In reality, the Gini coefficient measures consumption inequality, not income inequality, and gap analysis is often used to defer some of the blame to global factors. World Bank and other organizations have historically used different inequality measures to evaluate across nations, which complicates the attribution of inequality trends.
Another major issue in the report is the increasing income inequality in India. Data from the rural-Kale Foundations International (KLEMS) reveals a steady decline in real household income per capita since 2004. India’s Gini coefficient for real income has jumped from 52 in 2004 to 62 in 2023, underscoring the growing disparity. This rise in income inequality is not solely a result of productivity growth or tech advancement but can be traced to trends in ruralization, poor infrastructure, and shifting societal values.
The challenge lies in understanding how the rise in income inequality affects real household consumption and income. While higher income growth can tend to reduce inequality in traditional sectors like manufacturing and services, it exacerbates structural challenges in more basic sectors. highlight traditional or dignified sectors, such as agriculture, where economic productivity might lead to a higher share of GDP but often underpinned by underpaid workers. The = issue of “rweed quality” in low-cost goods and labor is particularly significant. In many rural areas, physical displacement and continuation of informal economies are more costly than improving infrastructure and income levels, creating cycles of poverty that are difficult to negate. Evaluating the economic partnerships and governance in India is another critical aspect to consider. The 2024-25 World Bank projection of real GDP growth at 6.5-6.7 percent is largely explained by growth-driven income creation rather than a reduction in household consumption expenditure. However, this projection excludes welfare cuts and other programs that provide cushionary support for the shrinking middle class. The rise in inequality is not merely a response to a failing GDP growth narrative but reflects broader structural factors in the economy, such as failing infrastructure and the lack of liquidity to fund essential spending like healthcare and housing. Key structural issues in India's economy include persistent challenges with delivery quality, particularly for goods like wheat and canvas. The increases in agricultural GVA growth over the past five years (~4.5%) are mostly driven by tasteless exports from agriculture rather than productivity gains. This pattern has been outpaced by棹 from other sectors like BFSI and manufacturing, which saw modest growth. Additionally, the work force is increasingly characterized by inequality along racial, gender, and regional lines. International++); The K-shaped recovery in India’s economy is marked by accelerating gains in infrastructure and industrial有多大, driven by productivity and consumption gains, supplemented by a buoyant equity market. However, widespread budget constraints among lower-income households have curtailed growth, putting pressure on the dollar. This structural divergence underscores the challenge of achieving sustained economic development. The Government of India’s reports overselling economic progress by focusing on GDP growth, rather than addressing the persistent issues of inequality and structural changes. They underResearchers Order and pull consumers into a system that rewards low-skill jobs and investors with dollar profits, which highlights the role of winners and losers in the economy. The narrative of “inequality reduction” is incomplete, as it omits the critique of a failing governance system and the role of inequality itself. The World Bank, among other organizations, has historically measured inequality using measures that are sensitive to consumption choices rather than income. The Gini coefficient, for instance, measures the deviation from perfect equality in consumption distribution, not in income. This makes it difficult to value changes in inequality claims purely on GDP growth or other indicators. Comparisons between countries’ income inequality metrics can be misleading due to methodological differences and inconsistencies in how data is collected and processed. Analyzing consumption expenditure growth and inequality is a complex task, as it requires understanding both the breadth and depth of economic drivers. Future policies will need to address not only the structural issues but also the broader implications for social welfare and rural development. The lack of diversity in economic policies and governance has exacerbated problems, as data from Piketty et al. (2019) reveals, which highlights the need for greater equality among sectors, including “innovators” who drive long-term economic growth but also raise consumer costs for consumers. The reliance on welfare cuts and small grants to support lower-income households is denying them a more diversified and sustainable future. These programs do not meet the sustained GDP growth projections of 2024-25 and are failing to address the root causes. The underlying inequality in the formal and informal sectors is too pronounced to be easily suppressed, and continued efforts to refund these cuts will only lead to increasingly fragmented and unproductive allocations. The meisje narrative around economic elections ignores the real-life challenges of measuring progress and theHaving steelmanic needs of households in rural areas.