Gwadar’s Grand Opening Underscores Growing Tensions in China-Pakistan Corridor
The inauguration of Pakistan’s largest airport in Gwadar, Balochistan, was intended as a triumphant display of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, the event, marked by a heavy security lockdown and the conspicuous absence of Chinese officials despite their significant financial contribution, revealed underlying tensions and uncertainties surrounding the ambitious project. While Pakistani officials celebrated the airport as a symbol of progress and cooperation, the reality on the ground paints a more complex picture.
CPEC, a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, promised a $62 billion investment in Pakistani infrastructure. Gwadar, with its deepwater port and planned economic zone, was envisioned as the jewel in CPEC’s crown, a future "Dubai of Pakistan." However, a decade later, these grand promises remain largely unfulfilled, fueling local resentment and a security crisis. The city, now heavily securitized with checkpoints, restricted access, and a segregated Chinese enclave, feels more like a high-security compound than a thriving economic hub.
Local Discontent and Security Concerns Plague Gwadar’s Development
Local communities in Gwadar feel marginalized and exploited by the CPEC projects. Restricted access to the sea, vital for the local fishing industry, has crippled livelihoods. Fishermen report being treated like "thieves" in their own waters, their access severely limited by security forces. Projects like a proposed donkey slaughterhouse, intended to supply ingredients for traditional Chinese medicine, have further alienated the local population. The perception of Chinese exploitation and the lack of tangible benefits for local communities have created a breeding ground for resentment and unrest.
The security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated significantly, with separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) waging a violent campaign against CPEC, targeting both Chinese and Pakistani interests. The BLA accuses China of exploiting the region’s resources and has carried out numerous attacks, including a deadly assault near Karachi airport. These escalating security threats have forced China to scale back its presence, pulling out workers and halting the progress of several CPEC projects.
China Expresses Concerns Over Security and Pakistan’s "False Rhetoric"
Chinese officials have voiced growing frustration with the security situation and the slow pace of CPEC development. Wang Shengjie, China’s political secretary to Pakistan, expressed "serious concerns" about the future of the multibillion-dollar investment, highlighting the "hatred against the Chinese" in Gwadar and Balochistan. He criticized the Pakistani government for using "false rhetoric" about CPEC, creating unrealistic expectations among locals and hindering development. These unusually blunt criticisms underscore the growing rift between the two countries over the project’s implementation.
Analysts attribute some of CPEC’s failures to Pakistan’s own missteps. Policymakers are accused of prioritizing projects with limited economic viability and failing to invest in necessary supporting infrastructure. This lack of foresight has prevented citizens from experiencing the promised benefits of Chinese investment, further fueling discontent. The lack of transparency and communication has exacerbated the situation, creating a climate of distrust and suspicion.
Strategic Concerns and Geopolitical Implications Fuel Speculation
Underlying the economic and security concerns are broader geopolitical anxieties. The scale of Chinese investment in Gwadar, including the construction of Pakistan’s largest airport in a relatively small city, has raised questions about China’s true intentions. Speculation abounds that China’s interest in Gwadar extends beyond commercial interests, with some suggesting the port could potentially serve as a future military base for the Chinese navy.
Pakistani officials have denied any agreements allowing for Chinese military use of CPEC infrastructure, attributing recent security agreements to intelligence sharing and coordination. However, sources close to the matter suggest that China has been pressuring Pakistan to allow the presence of PLA troops to protect Chinese workers and grant access to Gwadar port for its navy. These alleged demands, coupled with Pakistan’s economic vulnerability, raise concerns about China’s leverage and the potential for a greater Chinese military presence in the region.
Pakistan Caught Between China’s Investment and US Pressure
Pakistan finds itself in a delicate balancing act, heavily reliant on Chinese investment while simultaneously seeking to maintain its relationship with the United States. The US has expressed concerns about the potential for China to use its investments for "coercive leverage" and has reportedly pressured Pakistan to resist certain deals, such as the sale of a major Pakistani power company to a Chinese state firm. Pakistan’s recent outreach to the US administration, including meetings with known China critics, underlines the complex geopolitical dynamics at play.
While Pakistan has denied any plans for a Chinese military presence, the ongoing security challenges, China’s growing frustration, and Pakistan’s economic vulnerability create an uncertain future for CPEC. China’s significant investment and strategic interests in Pakistan make a complete withdrawal unlikely, but the project’s trajectory remains unclear. The growing tensions, unmet expectations, and strategic concerns surrounding CPEC highlight the complex and evolving relationship between China and Pakistan, and the potential implications for regional stability.