It’s like something out of a bad movie, but for real. The top people in the Russian military seem to be painting a rosier picture of the war for the Kremlin than what’s actually happening on the ground. Think about it: they’re effectively showing their boss, President Putin, maps filled with lines and colors that claim they’ve captured towns and pushed forward, when in reality, their soldiers haven’t even sniffed those areas. This isn’t just a small oversight; it’s a consistent pattern of what we can only call “make-believe” victories. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a reputable group that keeps a close eye on these things, believes this false reporting is putting Putin in a difficult spot, making him demand things that his army simply can’t deliver. Imagine a manager telling his CEO that a project is 90% done, but in reality, it’s barely started. The CEO, based on this false information, then sets aggressive new targets, unaware that they’re completely unachievable. That seems to be the tragic play unfolding in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The stark reality is that the Russian invasion, which once seemed like a juggernaut, has significantly slowed down, becoming a painful, drawn-out grind. Ukrainian drones, often small and agile, are turning every Russian attempt at an advance into a costly and slow crawl. This huge chasm between what Moscow claims they’re achieving and the actual situation on the battlefields is growing wider by the day, pushing their demands further and further into the realm of fantasy, way beyond what their soldiers can realistically achieve.
The smoking gun, in this case, appears to be a leaked map. On May 28th, an independent Ukrainian cartographer, someone who studies and creates maps, shared what looks very much like an official Russian Defense Ministry map on X (formerly Twitter). This map, dated April 9th, specifically detailed the front lines in the western part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, a region in Ukraine. The ISW, after assessing the situation carefully, stated that they have good reason to believe this map is authentic. Now, here’s where it gets problematic: this map boldly claims that Russian forces had seized about a dozen settlements, both west and southeast of a key town called Orikhiv. To add fuel to the fire, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, publicly boasted on April 21st that his troops had captured Veselyanka and had even entered Zaporozhets. Conveniently, these claims line up perfectly with the fictional advances depicted on the leaked map. It’s almost as if the map was drawn to support Gerasimov’s public statements, rather than reflecting the ground truth.
However, when independent observers—people and organizations outside of Russia’s official channels—looked at the evidence, they found absolutely no sign of these supposed gains. The ISW, for instance, found zero evidence that Russian forces had entered Orikhiv, Richne, Veselyanka, Zaporozhets, or Zapasne by April 9th, the date on the leaked map. Even more telling, as of May 28th, they found no Russian presence whatsoever in Richne, Veselyanka, or Zapasne. The closest Russian troops were to Orikhiv, a town they’ve been trying to capture since 2022, was about 3 kilometers away. That’s hardly “seized.” This discrepancy isn’t just a minor error; it’s a fundamental difference between what’s being reported internally and what’s actually happening on the ground. It paints a picture of a military command that is either severely out of touch with reality or, more concerningly, actively fabricating successes to appease those higher up the chain of command, particularly Putin himself. Imagine a student telling their parents they got an ‘A’ on a test, but the teacher’s grade book shows a failing mark. The parents then praise the student, unaware of the fabrication, and expect similar results in the future based on a lie.
This isn’t an isolated incident either; this pattern of inventing victories has been going on for a while. For over a year, the Russian command has been consistently misreporting the situation in the Kupiansk sector of Kharkiv Oblast. In late August, Gerasimov, again, claimed his forces held about half of the city. Then, in early October, Putin himself stepped in, stating that they controlled two-thirds. By late November, Gerasimov escalated the lie, claiming the entire city had fallen. Think of the sheer audacity of these claims! However, the truth, as always, eventually came out. By late December, Ukrainian forces had largely cleared Kupiansk, actively hunting down the last remaining Russian infiltrators. The reality was that these grand claims were completely unfounded. Even Russian war bloggers, who are often supportive of the war effort, turned on their own command, openly accusing them of feeding the Kremlin false information. This internal dissent further highlights the disconnect between the official narrative and the brutal reality for those on the front lines. Despite these public contradictions and internal criticisms, the false claims didn’t stop. On May 16th, Gerasimov once again announced that his troops were pushing toward Shevchenkove, a town well to the west of Kupiansk, implying further deep advances. Then, just twelve days later, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov issued a direct order to the Western grouping of forces, telling them to accelerate their advances along the Kupiansk, Borova, and Lyman axes. This order, coming right after a new set of fictional claims, strongly suggests a desperate attempt to force reality to match the fabricated maps and reports that are being presented to the leadership. It’s as if they’re saying, “We told the boss we’re here, so now we have to get there, no matter the cost.”
This whole charade of inflated reporting covers up a very uncomfortable truth for Moscow: a significant slowdown in Russian territorial gains. The ISW has calculated that, between January 1st and May 26th of this year, Russian forces managed to seize only 104 square kilometers in Ukraine. Now, compare that to the same period in the previous year (2025 in the original text, likely a typo for 2024 or 2023, but the point of a stark contrast remains), when they captured a staggering 1,619 square kilometers. Even if you generously add the 628 square kilometers that Russia only managed to “infiltrate” this year, the gap in their progress is still enormous. This data paints a clear picture of a military that is struggling to achieve its objectives, despite the grand rhetoric. In Donetsk Oblast, a key area for Russian ambitions, the ISW estimates that the advance this year has been a mere 2.63 square kilometers per day. At such a snail’s pace, the goal of seizing the rest of the region seems incredibly distant, bordering on impossible within any reasonable timeframe. Yet, despite these hard facts, the Financial Times reported on May 28th that President Putin, according to sources who have spoken with him, genuinely believes Russia can capture the entire Donbas region by the fall. Apparently, once that’s achieved, he plans to expand his territorial demands even further. This reveals a chilling disconnect: Putin, seemingly relying on these doctored maps and false reports, is living in an alternate reality where his army is achieving far more than it actually is.
The implications of this deception are profound and dangerous. As the ISW chillingly concludes, “The Russian military command likely regularly shows such exaggerated maps to Putin, shaping his false perception of the frontline and the extent of Russian advances and likely leading him to make increasingly unrealistic demands.” Imagine a CEO being consistently fed glowing, but false, reports about a company’s performance. They would then set increasingly ambitious and ultimately impossible targets for their employees, leading to frustration, burnout, and ultimately, failure for the company. In this war, the “employees” are Russian soldiers, and the “failure” means more lives lost, more resources wasted, and a prolonged, bloody conflict based on a foundation of lies. This manufactured optimism, fueled by inaccurate maps and reports, creates a dangerous feedback loop where unrealistic expectations meet a harsh reality, potentially leading to desperate and unpredictable actions. The human cost of this deception, for both Russian and Ukrainian lives, is immeasurable. It’s a tragic example of how leaders can become imprisoned by their own propaganda, unable to see the truth until it’s too late.