If you’re an FPL manager, you probably already know that Gameweek 9 has a different feeling to it. It’s not just another round of fixtures, another deadline to beat, another set of price changes to nervously refresh. No, this is the last weekend before the entire fixture picture shifts, and that means the decisions you make before Saturday 31 October at 11:00 GMT carry a little extra weight. There’s something almost theatrical about it: the final act before the set changes, the last chance to look at the schedule the old way before everything reorders itself. The official FPL data has crunched the numbers for the five gameweeks that follow, from Gameweek 10 through Gameweek 14, and the results are striking. Bournemouth come out with the kindest run in the whole game, an average difficulty rating of just 2.60. Brentford, meanwhile, face the toughest stretch in the league, with a daunting average of 3.80, while Newcastle are right behind them at 3.60. For anyone who plays the game, these numbers are more than just trivia. They’re a roadmap, and they should shape how you approach your transfers, your captaincy, and even your bench.
Let’s unpack what those difficulty ratings actually mean. In official FPL data, every fixture is given a score based on the strength of the opponent, with lower numbers representing easier matches and higher numbers representing tougher ones. A fixture against a struggling side might carry a rating of 2, while a trip to a title contender could be rated 4 or 5. When you average those numbers over a run of fixtures, you get a quick sense of whether a team’s schedule is about to turn green, red, or something in between. Bournemouth’s 2.60 average over the next five gameweeks is therefore a beautiful sight for managers who have been patient with their assets. It suggests a stretch of fixtures where their players could deliver points at both ends of the pitch, whether that’s a defender keeping clean sheets or an attacker finding space against defences that are below the level they’ve been facing. On the other side of the ledger, Brentford’s 3.80 is a warning sign, a sea of red that should make you think twice before holding onto or bringing in their players for the long term. Newcastle’s 3.60 is similarly intimidating, especially for a side whose results have already been unpredictable. The message could not be clearer: if you’re buying for one week only, you need to know exactly what you’re doing, because the moment the calendar gets busy, the fixtures turn, and you might find yourself stuck with a player you never meant to keep.
That’s the real trap of Gameweek 9, and it’s one that catches even experienced managers. The deadline is there, the price changes are ticking, and you see a single fixture that looks too tasty to ignore. You bring in a player for that one match, convinced you’ll move them on next week. But the five gameweeks that follow are a whirlwind, with midweek matches, rotation, injuries, and the sheer chaos of a packed schedule. Suddenly you’re holding a Brentford midfielder who scored well in Gameweek 9 but now faces the hardest run in the league, or a Newcastle defender whose clean sheet in this round becomes a distant memory as their fixtures turn vicious. The data before the deadline is your best friend. If you know that Bournemouth have the kindest run in the game from Gameweek 10 to Gameweek 14, you can buy into their assets now, before the prices change and before everyone else catches on. If you know that Brentford and Newcastle are about to face the toughest schedules, you can plan your exits early, even if it means leaving some points on the table in the short term. The managers who win their mini-leagues are not the ones who chase every single fixture; they’re the ones who think two or three steps ahead, using the fixture difficulty ratings to build a squad that peaks at the right moments.
The writer behind this particular slice of analysis is Arjun Rao, a football journalist who covers the Premier League for The False 9. His work is a blend of tactical breakdowns, transfer analysis, and the numbers that drive the game, the kind of writing that helps fans see past the surface of a result and understand why things happened the way they did. For FPL managers, that kind of insight is gold. You don’t have to be a data scientist or a statistician to benefit from someone who has already done the heavy lifting, who has looked at the fixture lists, weighed the opposition, and translated all of that into a simple set of numbers. What Rao’s analysis reminds us is that football is often decided by tiny margins, a missed chance here, a defensive lapse there, and that those margins are more predictable when you look at the bigger picture. The average difficulty ratings for Gameweeks 10 to 14 are not a guarantee of results, but they are a probability map. Bournemouth’s 2.60 is a sign that their players are more likely to return points over that stretch, while Brentford’s 3.80 and Newcastle’s 3.60 are warnings that the odds are stacked against them. In a game where everyone is looking for an edge, that’s the kind of information you can build a transfer strategy around.
Then, of course, there are the price changes. Tonight’s FPL market is live, and with risers and fallers being updated in real time, there is always a small window of opportunity for savvy managers. Price changes might feel like a secondary concern compared to points, but they matter enormously over the course of a season. A player who rises in value can give you extra budget to upgrade elsewhere, while a player who falls can leave you with dead weight and a headache. The predictions for tonight’s market are already circulating, and if you’re considering a move for a Bournemouth asset before their kind run, you might want to act before their price creeps up. Conversely, if you’re looking to offload a Brentford or Newcastle player before their fixtures turn, you might want to do it before they drop in value. The market is a reflection of collective behaviour, and when the fixture difficulty data becomes widely known, prices start to shift. That means the deadline isn’t just about picking your team for Gameweek 9; it’s about positioning yourself for the weeks ahead. You want to be the manager who bought early, not the one who chased a player after the price had already risen, and you want to be the manager who sold before the fall, not the one who watched their team value slowly erode.
So what does all of this mean for you, the average FPL manager staring at your screen, trying to decide whether to keep faith with your stubborn striker or make that fourth transfer of the week? It means taking a breath and looking at the long game. Gameweek 9 is a bridge, not a destination. The deadline on Saturday 31 October at 11:00 GMT is your final chance to shape your squad before the fixture landscape changes, and the data is there to guide you. Bournemouth’s 2.60 average difficulty over the next five gameweeks is an invitation to invest, to trust their players, to give yourself a foundation of points that should carry you through the busy calendar. Brentford and Newcastle, with averages of 3.80 and 3.60 respectively, are red flags in the distance, a reminder that not every purple patch can last. Arjun Rao’s analysis for The False 9 gives you the numbers, but the decision is still yours, and that’s what makes the game so compelling. By all means, check tonight’s price changes, scan the risers and fallers, and factor in the predictions. But above all, remember that this Gameweek is the last one before everything changes. Buy with the future in mind, sell with the schedule in front of you, and don’t let one shiny fixture fool you into a short-term move that leaves your team stranded when the calendar gets busy. In FPL, as in life, the best decisions are often the ones you make when you know what’s coming next. Good luck.