Imagine you’re walking along, minding your own business, when suddenly you realize someone’s been whispering in your ear, trying to get you riled up about something. Not just any someone, but folks from far away, with their own agendas. That’s pretty much what’s happening in Alberta, Canada, right now. It turns out, that whole buzz about Alberta wanting to break away from Canada and maybe even become a U.S. state isn’t entirely homegrown. There are powerful foreign forces, including Russia and China, that are actively fanning the flames of separatism, stirring up discontent, and trying to pull the province apart from the rest of Canada. It’s like they’re trying to chip away at Canada’s very identity, all while we, the citizens, might not even realize we’re caught in their crosshairs.
Researchers who keep an eye on online shenanigans and foreign propaganda stumbled upon this unsettling truth earlier this year. They were using fancy AI tools to track what Russian websites and social media accounts were saying about the war in Ukraine, when all of a sudden, Alberta popped up on their radar – big time. Between late December and late April, mentions of Alberta separatism and related ideas, like Canada falling apart, shot up from these known Russian sources. One network alone, Pravda Network, focused on Alberta 67 times in just four months, which is way more than any other Canadian topic. These “content farms” are creating material specifically designed to inflame Albertans, sow discord, and ultimately undermine Canada’s stability. It’s a cunning strategy: they push these divisive messages online, hoping they’ll resonate with Canadians who already feel a certain way, and then those Canadians unwittingly share and repost the content, making it seem like a local, organic conversation. It’s like a “laundering effect,” where legitimate local concerns get mixed with foreign propaganda, making it hard to tell what’s what.
This eye-opening discovery is laid out in a new report by the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience. Brian McQuinn and Marcus Kolga, two experts in AI and online influence, are sounding the alarm, saying that Alberta’s proposed independence referendum is a prime target for foreign actors. Dr. McQuinn put it quite starkly: “We’re kind of sleepwalking into this referendum and we are already being targeted a lot more than people realize.” These foreign activities aren’t just limited to online whispers. They range from covert influence campaigns by countries like Russia and China, to open remarks and actions by figures like those in the Trump administration, who have even met with Alberta separatist representatives in Washington. And then there are the online content mills that use AI to churn out YouTube videos, often filled with falsehoods, specifically to deepen divisions and muddy the waters of public debate. It’s a multifaceted attack on Canada’s “cognitive sovereignty,” which is essentially our ability to make political decisions freely, without being manipulated by outsiders.
The concern is particularly acute because the proposed Alberta referendum, if it proceeds as planned for October 19th, offers a fertile ground for these malign forces. Dr. McQuinn and Mr. Kolga believe that this manipulation is already in full swing. What they’re still trying to figure out is the exact impact and scale of these efforts, especially since so much of this activity is deliberately hidden. This isn’t a new problem, either. Last fall, another research firm, Insikt Group, found something similar. They were investigating a Russian network called CopyCop, known for spreading disinformation to create division in Western countries, when they found a surprisingly specific website: albertaseparatist.com. While it looked like a genuine grassroots effort by Albertans, Insikt suspects it’s one of hundreds of sites operated by this Russian network, linked to the infamous Internet Research Agency that interfered in the 2016 U.S. election. The website’s registration details pointed to a non-existent address and an incorrect phone number, further raising suspicions. Insikt concluded that this operation was “almost certainly attempting to capitalize on growing pro-independence sentiment in the Canadian province of Alberta and exacerbate domestic polarization.”
The Canadian researchers uncovered this unfolding drama using a special AI system called Cipher, developed by Dr. McQuinn. Cipher is like an online detective, automatically gathering and categorizing online content to quickly spot developing narratives and potential disinformation campaigns. They’d previously used it in 2023 to study Russia’s efforts to undermine support for Ukraine in Canada, and what they found was alarming: even before the invasion, talk of corruption in Ukraine and doubts about NATO and Ottawa’s support were spreading online, specifically targeting Canadians. Their research revealed that about 200,000 Russian-linked accounts, including a core group of pro-Kremlin accounts, were tailoring narratives for Canadian audiences, gaining an “outsized influence” among Canadian social media users. Once this information entered Canadian online discussions, its origins were often lost. Dr. McQuinn observed that a staggering 83% of the “ecosystem” spreading what they identified as foreign propaganda consisted of Canadians who simply couldn’t tell the difference or didn’t care where the stories came from. They were unknowingly amplified false narratives, shaping public opinion in a really significant way. These influence campaigns didn’t discriminate politically, targeting both ends of the Canadian political spectrum, seeing everyone as potentially useful.
The current campaigns targeting Alberta focus on four main themes: exaggerating the growing separatist sentiment, amplifying grievances between Alberta and Ottawa (often distorting them to suggest breaking away from Canada would lead to prosperity), creating the impression of strong international support for Alberta’s separation, and blending outright falsehoods with real news to make the propaganda more believable. Cipher is now specifically trained to identify these suspected influence campaigns from various countries. This is all particularly concerning because while support for independence in Alberta has hovered around 30%, historically, significant shifts can happen quickly in the lead-up to a vote. Examples like Brexit, Quebec’s 1995 referendum, and Scottish independence movements show how quickly public opinion can sway. What makes these foreign influence campaigns so insidious, Dr. McQuinn explains, is that “really good disinformation starts with something you nod your head to.” It leverages existing beliefs and frustrations, making it easier for people to share without questioning its origin. Even more troubling is the worry that this foreign-sourced content is being used to train AI systems, potentially injecting misinformation into search results about Alberta separatism and other topics, hoping to manipulate the answers these platforms provide. The report also points out that not all foreign involvement is covert; actions by the Trump administration, like meetings with separatist leaders and public statements supporting their cause, are seen as overt attempts to influence. These actions, combined with the efforts of U.S. “MAGA influencers” stoking separatism on podcasts, are viewed as direct interference. The stakes are high: if the referendum proceeds, there’s a risk of disinformation targeting its legitimacy, the voting process itself, and even attempts to delegitimize the outcome, potentially using fabricated evidence. The Canadian government is certainly aware of the threat, but experts fear their current capacity to address it is insufficient, especially when foreign adversaries move at “algorithmic speed” while Canada’s response remains slower and more reactive. It’s a stark reminder that while healthy debate is vital in a democracy, the intentional manipulation of that debate by foreign powers is a direct threat to Canada’s democratic integrity, national security, and our ability to think for ourselves.