Disinformation: An Existential Threat to Canadian Democracy
Justice Marie-Josée Hogue’s inquiry into foreign interference has unveiled a chilling reality: disinformation, fueled by generative AI and a declining trust in traditional media, poses the single greatest threat to Canadian democracy. While the report acknowledges the continued presence of more conventional forms of interference, such as illicit campaign financing and diaspora intimidation, it places unprecedented emphasis on the insidious nature of information manipulation. This spotlight on disinformation, though unexpected given the inquiry’s primary focus, underscores its potential to erode the very foundations of democratic discourse.
The report paints a stark picture of how disinformation, by sowing distrust and fostering division, can undermine the essential elements of a healthy democracy: deliberation, discussion, negotiation, and compromise. This insidious threat is not merely about swaying election outcomes but about poisoning the public’s understanding of political processes and eroding faith in the institutions upon which democracy rests. Hogue argues that this "information manipulation," whether originating from foreign actors or domestic sources, constitutes an existential threat to the Canadian democratic system.
Hogue’s report cites several instances of alleged disinformation campaigns during the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. These include the targeting of former Conservative MP Kenny Chiu, a suspected misinformation campaign against Erin O’Toole’s Conservative campaign, and disinformation aimed at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau following his accusations against Indian officials in the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. While definitive links to state actors remain elusive, the report hints at potential connections to China and India in these respective incidents. However, despite these isolated cases, the inquiry found that disinformation had a negligible impact on the overall results of the 2019 and 2021 elections.
This assessment aligns with the findings of the Media Ecosystem Observatory (MEO), a research collaborative between McGill University and the University of Toronto. While the MEO documented a surge in misinformation, particularly surrounding COVID-19 measures and voter fraud allegations, during the 2021 election, they concluded its influence was limited due to low engagement and Canadians’ ability to discern false narratives. However, there are concerns that the upcoming federal election may present a dramatically different landscape, due to evolving social media dynamics and the rise of readily accessible AI-powered disinformation tools.
The landscape of social media, a primary source of information for many Canadians, has undergone a significant transformation since the last election. The major platforms – X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, and Instagram – are now controlled by just two individuals, Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, each with divergent approaches to content moderation and platform safety. This, combined with the rapid advancement of generative AI, creates a vastly more vulnerable environment for large-scale disinformation campaigns. The ease and affordability of generating and disseminating AI-driven disinformation represents a significant escalation in the threat to democratic integrity.
The Hogue report stresses the magnitude of the disinformation challenge, recognizing that Canada cannot combat it alone. The commission proposes several recommendations, including the establishment of a governmental body to monitor open-source information, like social media activity, to identify and counter misinformation and disinformation campaigns. This proposal raises inherent challenges, including balancing the need for monitoring with privacy concerns and determining the government’s role in assessing information authenticity. The report also underscores the importance of traditional professional media, with their established journalistic standards, as a crucial bulwark against the spread of false information. However, this recommendation comes at a time when trust in media is declining among Canadians. A recent Reuters Institute survey revealed a significant drop in Canadians’ trust in media, down to 39% in 2024 from 55% in 2016. Compounding the situation is the position of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, a likely contender for the next prime ministership, who has pledged to cut federal funding for legacy media, including the CBC.
Despite these challenges, the Hogue report provides a crucial starting point for a much-needed national conversation on how governments and civil society can address the disinformation threat. It serves as a rallying cry for proactive measures, urging the implementation of policies and the development of infrastructure to counter this insidious threat. This moment presents a critical opportunity to acknowledge the gravity of the disinformation challenge and to collectively forge strategies to safeguard the integrity of Canadian democracy. The future of informed democratic participation hinges on a concerted effort to counter this increasingly sophisticated and pervasive threat.