A Deluge of Disinformation: The 2024 US Election and the Future of Truth
The 2024 US presidential election was preceded by an unprecedented wave of disinformation, a phenomenon described by Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency head Jen Easterly as breathtaking in both scale and creativity. False narratives, spread through manipulated videos and social media, targeted both candidates. Fabricated FBI and CBS reports warned of voter fraud, while other videos falsely depicted the destruction of pro-Trump ballots. Vice President Kamala Harris was the subject of numerous fabricated stories, ranging from alleged hit-and-run incidents to a purported association with Jeffrey Epstein. These falsehoods, coupled with existing disinformation campaigns concerning immigration, hurricane relief, and other issues, saturated the information landscape. The disinformation machine, however, fell silent after Trump’s victory, leaving a critical question: Did this orchestrated campaign of falsehoods influence the election outcome?
Evidence suggests that the disinformation did, in fact, impact voter behavior. Studies show a correlation between voter misinformation on key issues like immigration, crime, and the economy, and a preference for Trump. For instance, despite data consistently demonstrating that immigrants, both documented and undocumented, commit crimes at lower rates than native-born citizens, a pervasive narrative of a "migrant crime wave," promoted by Trump and his allies, took hold. This false narrative resonated with a significant portion of Trump supporters who prioritized immigration as a key issue. The success of this disinformation campaign highlights the vulnerability of the electorate to manipulated narratives, especially when those narratives exploit pre-existing fears and anxieties.
With Trump securing a second term, the future of the disinformation machine becomes a pressing concern. This apparatus, designed to exploit anxieties and promote a specific political agenda, raises questions about its role in a second Trump administration. Historically, disinformation thrives under autocratic regimes, raising concerns about the potential erosion of democratic norms and institutions. The disinformation machine employed during the election, characterized by the creation of false narratives, their repetition and amplification through various media channels, and the targeting of opponents as "enemies," is likely to be repurposed to consolidate power and suppress dissent.
Several key areas are likely to be targeted by disinformation campaigns in the coming years. First, undermining the credibility of media outlets perceived as unfriendly to the Trump administration will be a priority. This effort will likely be supported by allies within the media landscape, including figures like Elon Musk, whose platform X has proven to be a powerful tool for disseminating both accurate and inaccurate information. The "Musk effect," characterized by a high volume of often misleading posts reaching a vast audience, coupled with Musk’s stated commitment to "free speech absolutism," poses a significant challenge to efforts to combat disinformation.
Second, the potential appointment of individuals with a history of promoting disinformation to key cabinet positions raises concerns about the integrity of government institutions. Nominees like Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services), and Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense) have all publicly embraced or promoted false or misleading information. Their potential leadership of these agencies could further erode public trust in government and create an environment conducive to the spread of disinformation.
Third, Trump’s own documented history of making false or misleading statements suggests that disinformation will continue to be a central feature of his communication strategy. His reliance on repetition to solidify false narratives among his supporters has proven effective, and this tactic is likely to be employed even more extensively in his second term. This systematic dissemination of disinformation from the highest levels of government poses a grave threat to informed public discourse and democratic accountability.
Fourth, the disinformation campaigns that proved effective during the election, particularly those related to immigration, are likely to be revived to justify policy decisions and maintain public support. As the administration pursues its agenda, including potentially controversial policies like increased deportations, disinformation can be used to deflect criticism and maintain a narrative of success.
Finally, the success of disinformation campaigns in the US election could embolden foreign governments to employ similar tactics to manipulate their own citizens and interfere in the affairs of other nations. Russia, China, and Iran, already identified as major sources of disinformation targeting the US, may escalate their efforts, viewing the Trump administration’s embrace of disinformation as implicit permission. This could lead to a global “arms race” in disinformation, further eroding trust in information and institutions worldwide.
Combating this anticipated surge in disinformation requires a multi-pronged approach involving digital platforms, watchdog groups, the media, civil society organizations, and individual citizens. Digital platforms, with their immense reach and influence, must prioritize content moderation and fact-checking. Reversing the trend of reducing resources dedicated to these efforts is crucial. The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the importance of platform responsibility in combating misinformation, and a similar sense of urgency is needed to address the current threat.
Watchdog groups, media outlets, and civil society organizations must actively counter false narratives with engaging, fact-based content. Local media, in particular, plays a critical role in providing credible information to communities. International collaboration among watchdog groups and digital platforms is essential to identify and address foreign interference and the spread of disinformation across borders. Learning from the WHO’s efforts to combat COVID-19 misinformation, multilateral organizations could play a role in coordinating these efforts globally.
Finally, individual citizens must become more discerning consumers of information. Media literacy education and critical thinking skills are essential to navigate the increasingly complex information landscape. As individuals become more aware of the prevalence of disinformation, they can become more resistant to its influence.
The fight against disinformation will be a long and challenging one. However, recognizing the threat it poses to democratic values and institutions, and taking proactive steps to combat it, is essential to preserving a well-informed citizenry and a functioning democracy. The normalization of disinformation must be resisted at all costs.