For months, communities across East Africa have been watching the skies with a mixture of hope and apprehension. Farmers in places like Kajiado, Machakos, and Kitui have delayed their planting, families in urban centers have braced for potential flooding, and local leaders have fielded worried questions from neighbors who are unsure whether the heavy rains they were promised are actually on their way. It is in this atmosphere of uncertainty that weather experts from seven East African nations recently convened for an online dialogue hosted by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, or ICPAC. The message from these meteorologists and climatologists was consistent and reassuring: the seasonal forecast they issued back in September has not changed. Above-average rainfall is still expected across many parts of the region between October and December, even if the rains have been slow to arrive in certain areas. The meeting, which brought together specialists from Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Somalia, and Djibouti, was designed to bridge the gap between scientific prediction and public perception, to clarify confusion, and to combat the misinformation that has been spreading as quickly as any weather system moving across the Indian Ocean.
The experts’ central message was that a delay in the onset of rains does not mean the forecast was wrong. Jemimah Ongoma of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) was direct on this point, emphasizing that the forecast stands exactly as it was initially presented. Her reassurance was aimed at the many Kenyans who, by mid-October, had begun to question whether the promised rains would ever materialize. In counties like Kajiado, where the forecast predicted the onset of short rains during the second to third week of October, the wait has felt interminable to pastoralists watching their grazing lands grow parched and to farmers who need moisture in the soil before they can commit seeds to the earth. Ongoma explained that above-average rainfall is still anticipated in most counties through the end of the year, with rains expected to continue into January. The mechanism behind this expectation is a well-established El Niño event that has now firmly developed in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, which refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has a documented ripple effect on global weather patterns, including in East Africa. Forecasters are closely monitoring the conditions that will trigger the short rains in areas where they have not yet begun, and they remain confident that the seasonal patterns will assert themselves, albeit on a slightly altered timeline than some had hoped.
A significant portion of the dialogue was devoted to addressing a phrase that has caused considerable public anxiety: “Super El Niño.” The term, which has circulated widely on social media and in certain news outlets, has been interpreted by many as a prediction of sudden, catastrophic, and exceptionally heavy rainfall. This interpretation, the experts say, is a dangerous oversimplification. Eunice Koech, a climate scientist at ICPAC, acknowledged that international monitoring agencies, including the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, are indeed indicating a high likelihood of a strong to very strong El Niño event this season. However, she stressed that the strength of the El Niño phenomenon does not translate directly into a correspondingly massive amount of rainfall in any given location. Rainfall patterns, she explained, are the product of a complex interplay of multiple climatic factors. Ocean temperatures, atmospheric pressure systems, wind patterns, the temperature of the Indian Ocean, and the seasonal position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone all play a role. To assume that a stronger El Niño means proportionally more rain in Kajiado or Nairobi is to misunderstand the science. Koech’s plea to journalists and community leaders was simple: communicate the phenomenon accurately, because the public deserves information that helps them prepare, not information that frightens them into paralysis or inaction.
The technical definition of what constitutes the “onset” of the rainy season was also clarified for the benefit of both the media and the public. The Kenya Meteorological Department uses a specific and measurable threshold: the onset is declared when at least 20 millimeters of rainfall is recorded within three consecutive days, provided that no dry spell exceeding seven days follows. This definition, while scientific, has real-world consequences. An area where rain falls but is followed by an extended dry period is not considered to have entered the rainy season. Areas that have partially achieved the onset threshold are still being assessed, with scientists examining rainfall amounts and the occurrence of subsequent dry spells to determine whether the season has truly begun. The projected timeline for the short rains in Kenya’s southeastern counties, including Kajiado, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita-Taveta, placed the onset in the second to third week of October, with rainfall expected to persist into January. This precision in forecasting is not merely an academic exercise. For farmers, the decision of when to plant is a gamble that depends on reliable information. Planting too early, before the rains have firmly established, risks losing seeds to dry soil. Planting too late risks a truncated growing season and reduced yields. Accurate forecasts, communicated clearly and honestly, are essential tools for livelihoods that depend on the rhythm of the seasons.
One of the most striking admissions during the dialogue came from George Omony, a Ugandan Meteorological Officer, who candidly stated that scientists have not been communicating well with the public. This acknowledgment, coming from within the scientific community itself, is a crucial step toward rebuilding trust. Omony pointed out that the relationship between El Niño and rainfall patterns is nuanced and has not been adequately conveyed to the public. He specifically noted that the suppression of rainfall between June and September was also associated with the El Niño phenomenon, yet this connection was rarely explained. When the expected rains fail to arrive or arrive late, the public is left with a vacuum of understanding, which is quickly filled by rumors and misinformation. Omony also shed light on a regional meteorological puzzle: the Indian Ocean has not yet fully responded to the changes occurring in the Pacific. This lag helps explain why the onset of rains has been delayed in some areas. The ocean-atmosphere system operates on its own schedule, and the coupling between Pacific Ocean conditions and East African rainfall is not instantaneous. By explaining these delays with scientific humility, rather than defensive jargon, the experts hope to foster a more patient and informed public dialogue about what forecasts can and cannot promise.
The call to action from the dialogue was multifaceted. The experts urged journalists to treat meteorological agencies as primary sources and to seek clarification before publishing weather-related information. They encouraged the public to rely on official forecasts rather than unverified reports circulating on social media platforms. Ongoma specifically called for sustained engagement between scientists and the media, recognizing that a one-time briefing is insufficient to build the kind of deep understanding that accurate reporting requires. The stakes of this communication gap are high. Kenya’s seasonal outlook, released in late August, forecast above-average rainfall in more than forty counties, including major urban centers like Nairobi, Kisumu, Mombasa, and Garissa, alongside the more rural counties of Kajiado, Machakos, and others. Near-average to above-average rainfall was also anticipated in Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu, and Marsabit. At the regional level, ICPAC’s outlook indicated a ninety percent probability of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. These forecasts represent not just scientific predictions but the foundation for practical preparedness. With reliable information, communities can clear drainage channels, reinforce roofs, secure emergency supplies, and plan evacuation routes. Without it, they are left vulnerable to the twin dangers of complacency and panic. The experts’ closing message was one of measured confidence: the science is sound, the forecasts are robust, and the information is available. What remains is the human task of listening, understanding, and acting with wisdom.