India’s Diplomatic Tightrope Walk with Bangladesh Amidst Political Upheaval and International Scrutiny
India’s relationship with Bangladesh navigated a turbulent period in late 2024, marked by a regime change in Dhaka, accusations of interference, and a complex interplay of domestic and international politics. The backdrop to this diplomatic dance was the "Monsoon Revolution" in Bangladesh, which saw the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the installation of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. This shift in power created a ripple effect, impacting not only bilateral ties with India but also drawing the attention of global players, including the United States, the European Union, and China.
The initial response from India was cautious. After a four-month hiatus, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Dhaka in December, signaling a potential thaw in relations. Misri emphasized India’s desire for a "democratic, stable, peaceful, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh," reiterating a commitment to a "people-centric" approach. This visit coincided with a delegation of EU diplomats meeting with Yunus, further underscoring the international community’s interest in the unfolding situation. However, the veneer of diplomatic cordiality was quickly shattered by events within India.
Just a day after Misri’s visit, a series of protests erupted across India, orchestrated by Hindu nationalist organizations with alleged backing from the ruling BJP party. These demonstrations accused the Yunus government of perpetrating a "genocide" against Hindus in Bangladesh, a claim vehemently denied by Dhaka. The demonstrations, which included incendiary rhetoric and calls for UN intervention, raised serious questions about the sincerity of India’s diplomatic overtures. The stark contrast between the official pronouncements of the Indian Foreign Secretary and the actions of affiliated groups highlighted a duplicity in New Delhi’s approach.
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation were allegations of external forces attempting to destabilize both the Indian and Bangladeshi governments. The BJP asserted that the outgoing Biden administration in the US was trying to undermine Prime Minister Modi’s regime, a claim that drew a sharp rebuke from Washington. Meanwhile, the Yunus government pointed fingers at both domestic and international actors for attempting to destabilize the nascent interim administration. These accusations played out against the backdrop of a reported feud between US financier George Soros and Indian businessman Gautam Adani, both figures with close ties to respective political establishments.
At the heart of the diplomatic tension lay the issue of minority rights in Bangladesh. While India expressed concern about the safety of Hindus, the Yunus government maintained that incidents of violence were not targeted attacks based on religion but rather stemmed from political affiliations or personal disputes. Dhaka provided official figures significantly lower than those circulated by Indian media, suggesting an exaggeration of the situation by certain actors. The interim government emphasized that all citizens enjoyed equal rights and reiterated its commitment to upholding the rule of law. The differing narratives underscored the challenge of discerning truth amidst a flurry of accusations and propaganda.
The international community appeared largely unconvinced by the Indian narrative. The EU diplomats’ meeting with Yunus, as well as endorsements from other countries, indicated widespread support for the interim government. Yunus himself highlighted positive engagements with various nations, including several Gulf states and members of ASEAN. His emphasis on economic cooperation and regional integration contrasted sharply with India’s seeming reluctance to engage with Bangladesh under the SAARC framework. Instead, India pushed for cooperation under BIMSTEC, a regional grouping that excludes Pakistan, a long-standing rival of India. This preference for BIMSTEC over SAARC was seen by some as a deliberate move by India to marginalize Pakistan and maintain its regional dominance. Furthermore, the impending expiration of the Ganges Water Treaty in 2026 added another potential flashpoint to the already strained bilateral relationship.
The confluence of domestic political maneuvering, regional rivalries, and international power plays created a complex and volatile situation in South Asia. India’s diplomatic approach, characterized by a dichotomy between official statements and the actions of affiliated groups, raised questions about its true intentions. The involvement of external actors, particularly the United States under the then-incoming Trump administration, added another layer of intrigue. The situation underscored the need for nuanced and transparent diplomacy to address the underlying issues and prevent further escalation of tensions in the region. The conflicting narratives, amplified by disinformation and political posturing, presented a significant obstacle to achieving a peaceful and stable South Asia. The future of India-Bangladesh relations hinges on navigating these complex dynamics with honesty and a genuine commitment to cooperation, a task that requires political will and a prioritization of regional stability over narrow political agendas.