Democracy is more than an election-day ritual. It is a shared promise that ordinary people can choose their leaders without fear, that opponents can compete without being threatened, and that disagreements can be settled at the ballot box rather than in the streets. That promise is now being tested in Nigeria. With the 2027 general elections still some distance away, the National Peace Committee (NPC) has stepped forward with a sober warning: the signs are not good. In a statement jointly signed by its chairman, former Head of State Retired General Abdulsalami Abubakar, and its co-convener, Most Reverend Matthew Kukah, the committee expressed deep concern over the growing tide of misinformation, political intimidation, violence and inflammatory rhetoric already shaking the political landscape. This is not the condition of a maturing democracy; it is the atmosphere of a country drifting toward dangerous ground. The committee’s words carry unusual weight because it has been here before. It helped shepherd Nigeria through turbulent transitions, and its National Peace Accord has become a moral benchmark for how political actors should behave. When that committee speaks, it is not merely issuing a press release; it is reminding everyone that elections are won by earning trust, not by silencing rivals. The warning is early, but intentionally so. The NPC does not want to wait until the fires are burning out of control before calling the fire brigade. It wants Nigerians to understand that the next election will be shaped by choices being made today, and that those choices are already heading in a troubling direction.
The evidence behind this warning is not vague anxiety; it is documented reality. The committee’s Election Security Information Hub, a monitoring mechanism designed to track election-related incidents across the country, recorded 60 separate cases between August 19 and September 19. That one-month window is significant because it begins just one day after the signing of the first National Peace Accord for the 2027 electoral cycle on August 18. In other words, barely had the ink dried on a voluntary promise of peaceful conduct than abuses began piling up. The breakdown is instructive and deeply alarming. Misinformation and disinformation make up the largest share, accounting for 40 percent of all recorded incidents, or 24 cases. This is not merely annoying internet chatter; false stories about candidates, rigged machines, violent plots and electoral conspiracies can inflame communities and provoke real-world harm. Attacks and disruptions targeting political activities and assets follow close behind, representing 21.7 percent of cases, or 13 incidents. Political intimidation and threats, including cases involving security personnel, account for 16.7 percent, or 10 incidents. There are also six cases of outright political violence and thuggery, four cases of inflammatory statements, and one case each of restriction of freedom of expression, intra-party conflict and voter inducement. No single category may overwhelm the entire system, but together they paint a portrait of an election season already infected with hostility. The committee’s data suggests that too many political actors are operating as though the peace accord was an inconvenience rather than a commitment.
What makes these numbers so troubling is not simply the volume of incidents but what they reveal about the mindset of political players. The National Peace Accord is not a ceremonial document; it is a solemn public oath. When candidates and parties sign it, they are telling Nigerians that they will run issue-based campaigns, renounce violence and respect the rules. The early evidence shows that many have already abandoned that promise. The committee warned that these incidents threaten to restrict political participation, erode public confidence in the electoral system and escalate tensions as political competition intensifies. That is a dangerous trifecta. If people believe elections are fixed or unsafe, they may stop participating altogether, which weakens the legitimacy of whatever government emerges. If political violence goes unpunished, it sets a precedent that thuggery and intimidation are acceptable tools of power. If misinformation is allowed to spread without correction, it poisons the public mind and makes reasoned debate impossible. The NPC is not asking Nigerians to be pessimistic; it is asking them to be clear-eyed. Deviations from the peaceful and issue-based campaigns envisioned under the peace accord are not theoretical possibilities. They are already here. The committee’s message is that political leaders must decide whether they will be peacemakers or peace-breakers, and that the choice has consequences for the entire nation. The period between now and 2027 is not a waiting room; it is a proving ground.
For the institutions tasked with enforcing the law, the NPC has a direct and urgent set of demands. The police and other security agencies need to intensify prompt, impartial and evidence-driven investigations into electoral offences and political violence. That may sound obvious, but in a country where investigations often stall or target only the foot soldiers, the committee is insisting on something more complete. It wants equal protection for all political parties and candidates, regardless of whether they belong to the ruling party or the opposition. It also wants the outcomes of investigations communicated transparently, where legally permissible, so that the public can trust that justice is being done. Perhaps most importantly, the committee called on investigators to go beyond the individuals arrested at the scene of an incident and pursue those who organise, finance or sponsor unlawful conduct. This is a crucial point. Violence in Nigerian elections is rarely spontaneous; it is often planned and paid for by people who never appear at the scene. The NPC wants the full chain of responsibility exposed. At the same time, it urged security personnel to remain neutral and professional throughout the electoral process. Security forces are supposed to protect the process, not tilt it. When citizens see soldiers or police officers used to intimidate voters or shield favored candidates, trust in the entire system collapses. The committee’s message to security agencies is clear: your job is to be fair, thorough and brave enough to investigate anyone, no matter how powerful.
The National Peace Committee also turned its attention to the institutions that run and contest elections. It called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure stronger monitoring of political campaigns and strict enforcement of the Electoral Act and all applicable regulations governing political parties and campaign conduct. INEC is not supposed to be a passive observer; it is the referee, and referees who refuse to call fouls only encourage more fouls. The committee urged the commission to take appropriate regulatory action against breaches within its mandate and to refer suspected criminal violations to relevant law-enforcement agencies. In other words, INEC should not wait until election day to act. If campaigns are spreading lies, buying votes or inciting violence, the commission should step in early and decisively. At the same time, the NPC addressed political parties, candidates and their supporters directly. It asked them to immediately stop false, inflammatory and inciting communications. It enjoined political actors to verify information before publication and actively prevent their supporters from engaging in unlawful conduct, intimidation or disruption. This is a heavy responsibility. Political leaders cannot claim innocence when their supporters commit violence if they have spent months heating up the atmosphere with dangerous language. The committee is telling everyone who wants to lead Nigeria that leadership begins before the election, not only after it.
Finally, the NPC appealed to citizens, civil society organisations, religious and traditional institutions, the media and social media platforms to do their part. Political disagreements must be resolved through established legal and democratic mechanisms, not through retaliation or threats. Civil society should keep educating voters, building awareness and holding power to account. Traditional and religious leaders, who often command deep respect in their communities, should use their voices to preach peace and tolerance. The media and social media platforms have a particularly important role in countering false information and resisting the temptation to amplify sensational or divisive content. The committee’s message is clear and unwavering: every candidate must be able to campaign peacefully; every political party must be able to organise lawfully; and every citizen must be able to make a political choice without intimidation or coercion. This is not a radical demand. It is the very definition of democracy. The NPC has promised to continue monitoring and verifying incidents through its Election Security Information Hub, to share findings with relevant authorities and to publish periodic updates. That means this statement is not the end of the conversation; it is the beginning of a sustained watch. The committee cannot force anyone to be peaceful, but it can shine a light on those who are not. Ultimately, the fate of the 2027 elections lies in the hands of Nigerians themselves. The question is whether the country will choose fear and fury over freedom, or whether it will rise to the occasion and prove that democracy is still worth believing in.