Donald Trump recently stirred the pot, as he often does, by weighing in on his connection with the LGBTQ+ community. He floated some statements that, when you dig into the numbers, don’t quite align with the reality of his support among this demographic in past elections. The whole thing kicked off during an interview on Fox News’ “The Five” where he was asked about a rather sensitive rumor concerning Mojtaba Khamenei, the son and presumed successor of Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump mentioned he’d heard whispers that Khamenei Jr. was gay, adding with a characteristic flourish that such a revelation would certainly “put him off to a bad start in that particular country.” It was a moment of typical Trumpian candor, a seemingly offhand remark that quickly spiraled into a broader discussion about geopolitics, human rights, and his own perceived popularity within certain groups. This initial comment, while seemingly about a foreign dignitary, inadvertently set the stage for Trump to pivot to his favorite subject: himself, and his unique relationship with various voter blocs, particularly the LGBTQ+ community. The conversation swiftly moved from international gossip to domestic political claims, highlighting Trump’s tendency to weave disparate topics into a narrative that always circles back to his own perceived successes and unique appeal.
From there, the conversation took a sharp turn, with Trump veering off-topic to address what he found to be a puzzling phenomenon: women and LGBTQ+ community members who express support for Palestine. He articulated a perspective that, to him, rendered such support contradictory, if not outright illogical. He painted a stark picture of the conditions for women in certain regions, stating, “But they kill women if you don’t wear… certain cloth all over your face, you have no chance of living.” His implication was clear: how could women advocate for a cause when, in his view, the very societies they were supporting might oppress them? He extended this argument to the LGBTQ+ community with even more severity, asserting, “But they kill gays. They kill ‘em instantly. They throw ‘em off buildings.” For Trump, the notion of these groups aligning with a cause he perceived as antithetical to their own fundamental rights was a source of bewilderment. He seemed to be challenging their political choices, framing them as self-defeating given the human rights records he attributed to certain Palestinian factions or regions. This line of argument, while controversial, served to underscore his viewpoint that, from his perspective, he was a greater champion of their freedoms than they perceived, or than the causes they sometimes chose to champion.
Having established his bewilderment, Trump then deftly shifted the focus to his own track record and what he believed was an unexpectedly strong bond with the American “gay vote.” With a characteristic grin, he confessed he “sort of [has] to smile to myself” when he witnesses the aforementioned political alignments, before asserting his own popularity. He proudly declared, “I even played the gay national anthem as my walk off, okay?” He was, of course, referring to the iconic Village People hit “Y.M.C.A.,” a song that has, over decades, become deeply embedded in LGBTQ+ culture and celebrations. Trump seemed to believe that his use of the song at rallies was a shrewd political move, one that “probably” helped him connect with the community. He then doubled down on his claim of unique appeal, stating, “But I did great. No Republicans ever got the gay vote like I did. And I’m very proud of it. I think that’s great. Perhaps it’s because I’m from New York City, I don’t know,” he speculated, perhaps alluding to New York’s reputation as a more liberal and diverse city. This entire segment was a masterclass in Trump’s self-assessment, where anecdote and personal belief often trumped verifiable data, creating a narrative of exceptional support despite what the numbers might suggest to a more objective observer. His assertion of a strong bond with the “gay vote” was presented as an undeniable fact, a testament to his unique political charisma and ability to transcend traditional party lines and deeply entrenched societal divisions.
However, a quick glance at the data reveals that Trump’s claims of unparalleled support from the LGBTQ+ community are, at best, a partial truth and, at worst, an exaggeration. While he certainly received some votes from this demographic, the numbers don’t paint the picture of overwhelming, groundbreaking support he often suggests. For instance, NBC News, citing exit poll data, reported that in the 2020 election, where he ultimately lost to Joe Biden, Trump did indeed garner approximately 27% of the vote from the LGBTQ+ population. While this isn’t insignificant for a Republican candidate, it’s far from a majority and certainly doesn’t stand as an unprecedented surge of support. Even more telling is the stark decline in his appeal within the community in the subsequent 2024 election. In that contest, his support among LGBTQ+ voters plummeted to a mere 12%, a stark contrast to Vice President Kamala Harris’s commanding 86%. These figures clearly indicate a significant erosion of whatever inroads he might have believed he made in previous elections, painting a picture that deviates sharply from his personal narrative of exceptional popularity. The decline from 27% to 12% in just one election cycle suggests a notable shift in sentiment, perhaps driven by policy, rhetoric, or broader political trends that the former president conveniently overlooks in his self-assessment.
Even when considering his peak performance of 27% of the LGBTQ+ vote, Trump’s claim of doing “great” and surpassing all other Republicans in this regard doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. This 27% figure, while notable, merely ties the percentage that John McCain received when he ran against former President Barack Obama in 2008. So, while it might have been a respectable showing for a Republican, it wasn’t an unprecedented achievement as Trump suggested. Looking further back, the data consistently shows that Republican presidential candidates have struggled to capture a significant portion of the LGBTQ+ vote. For example, in 2012, The Williams Institute reported that Mitt Romney, another Republican presidential candidate, only managed to secure 22% of the community’s support, while Obama cruised to reelection with a considerable 76% of the queer vote. These historical numbers paint a consistent picture: while some LGBTQ+ individuals do vote Republican, it’s rarely a dominant or even a substantial bloc for the party. Trump’s claims, therefore, appear to be a selective interpretation of data, prioritizing his own narrative over the broader historical context of LGBTQ+ voting patterns in American politics. His assertions, while confidently delivered, are not fully substantiated by the historical voting records of the community he claims to have uniquely captured.
A deeper dive into the numbers, as reported by The Washington Blade, further challenges Trump’s narrative. In the 2016 election, the very election he won, Trump only secured 14% of the LGBTQ+ vote. While he did ultimately win the presidency, it was not due to an overwhelming wave of support from this particular community; Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, garnered a substantial 78% of the LGBTQ+ vote. This means that despite his victory, the vast majority of LGBTQ+ voters still cast their ballots for his opponent. The fact that Trump won the election with only 14% of this demographic’s support underscores the broader coalition he built, rather than highlighting a unique appeal to LGBTQ+ voters. His claims of having done “great” with this community, therefore, seem to be based on an internal metric that doesn’t align with the actual voting percentages. It further reinforces the idea that his confidence in his appeal to the LGBTQ+ community is more a matter of perception and personal assertion than verifiable electoral success. In essence, while Trump’s ability to win elections has been proven, his specific claims about his unprecedented sway over the LGBTQ+ voting bloc appear to be largely disconnected from the verifiable facts and historical trends of their electoral behavior.