Russia has significantly intensified its online disinformation campaigns in Poland, strategically exploiting a long-standing historical dispute between Warsaw and Kyiv over World War II-era massacres to drive a wedge between the two nations. Polish officials and independent researchers report that these operations, which primarily circulate on social media platforms in the Polish language, are deliberately designed to strain relations between Poland and its crucial wartime ally, Ukraine. The timing of these efforts is particularly concerning, as they coincide with Poland’s approaching parliamentary elections in 2027, where public sentiment and political alliances are already highly sensitive. By fueling nationalist emotions and historical grievances, the disinformation aims to weaken the Western unity that has been essential in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s full-scale invasion, potentially reshaping Poland’s foreign policy stance and its role within the broader NATO and EU framework.
At the heart of this manipulated controversy lies the painful and complex legacy of the Volhynia massacres, a tragic episode during World War II in which Ukrainian nationalists killed an estimated 100,000 Polish civilians between 1943 and 1945. These brutal events were followed by deadly reprisals against Ukrainians, adding layers of mutual trauma and resentment that have never been fully reconciled. The dispute has simmered for decades, but it reignited sharply in 2023 when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy participated in a ceremony honoring soldiers from a unit that included individuals involved in the massacres. This gesture deeply offended many Poles, and the tensions escalated further when Polish President Andrzej Duda, responding to domestic political pressures, made a symbolic gesture by posthumously honoring a Ukrainian Insurgent Army commander. These actions created a diplomatic rift that Russian propagandists have eagerly exploited, using the historical wounds to fuel contemporary political division.
The Russian disinformation machine, as detailed by analysts at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), has not relied on spreading outright fabrications but has instead adopted a more insidious tactic: amplifying and distorting real events, emotions, and historical grievances. By flooding social media platforms like X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Telegram with emotionally charged posts, they have successfully magnified the controversy far beyond its natural scope, increasing anti-Ukrainian content online by more than 250% in the aftermath of the Zelenskiy incident. This amplification is largely driven by automated bot networks that create the illusion of widespread grassroots anger, making it appear that ordinary Poles are overwhelmingly hostile toward Ukraine. The strategy is particularly effective because it exploits genuine historical pain, which makes the propaganda more believable and harder to debunk, allowing it to blend seamlessly with authentic public discourse and influence real-world perceptions.
According to Filip Bryjka, a leading analyst from PISM, this approach represents a new and sophisticated evolution in Russian information warfare. Instead of creating fake news from scratch, which can be easily identified and dismissed, the Russian strategy now focuses on taking real, emotionally volatile events and systematically magnifying them through coordinated amplification. This method creates a feedback loop where genuine anger, mixed with bot-driven posts, snowballs into what appears to be a massive public outcry. The goal is not necessarily to convince Poles to support Russia, but rather to weaken Poland’s resolve in supporting Ukraine, to erode public trust in the Polish government’s policies, and to create a toxic political environment that benefits pro-Russian or anti-NATO political factions. This subtle, reality-based approach makes the disinformation far more difficult for fact-checkers and media literacy campaigns to counter effectively.
The impact of this campaign is already visible in Polish public opinion surveys, which show a significant erosion of sympathy toward Ukrainian refugees and continued military aid. An IBRiS poll published in late 2023 found that 33.6% of Poles admitted their attitude toward Ukrainians had worsened, largely as a direct result of the historical disputes being amplified online. More strikingly, support for continued military assistance to Ukraine has plummeted from 78% in 2022 to just 52% in the most recent survey. These numbers reflect a broader war-weariness and a growing frustration among Polish citizens over the economic and social strains of hosting an estimated 1.8 to 1.9 million Ukrainian refugees, as well as disputes over Ukrainian grain imports that have undercut Polish farmers. While these pressures are real, the Russian disinformation campaign has deliberately magnified them, transforming vague anxieties into focused outrage against Ukraine specifically.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has publicly acknowledged the severity of the situation, urgently calling for an end to what he described as “xenophobic attacks” against Ukrainians living in Poland. Tusk’s government recognizes that the rising anti-Ukrainian sentiment, fueled by Russian interference, represents a direct threat to Poland’s national security and its pivotal role as a frontline state in the Western alliance against Moscow. The political consequences are profound, as the upcoming 2027 elections could see far-right, anti-Ukrainian parties gain significant ground, potentially altering Poland’s approach to the war and its alliances. As Wojciech Pokora of the Info Ops Poland Foundation notes, these campaigns represent a new type of hybrid warfare where “the event is real, but the interpretation is imposed by an external actor.” The challenge for Poland, and for all of Europe, lies in defending against this subtle but potent form of psychological manipulation that preys on genuine divisions and historical traumas.