Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Escalates: A Shadow War Across Europe
The Baltic Sea, a crucial waterway for trade and communication, became a battleground in late December when the Russian oil tanker Eagle S was detained by Finnish authorities. Suspected of dragging its anchor across the seabed, the Eagle S allegedly damaged a vital power cable and four telecommunications cables. This incident, occurring on Boxing Day, highlighted the escalating threat of Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign against Europe. While Moscow denied involvement, Finnish officials pointed fingers at Russia, citing discovered spy equipment on the tanker as evidence of sabotage. The incident underscored the vulnerability of Europe’s undersea infrastructure and prompted NATO to bolster its military presence in the region. This incident fits a pattern of increasing Russian aggression in the region, escalating tensions and prompting calls for a stronger, more coordinated European response.
The Eagle S incident was not an isolated event. 2024 witnessed a dramatic surge in documented Russian hybrid warfare activities across Europe. Leiden University research reveals a stark increase from 13 incidents in 2023 to 44 in 2024. These activities ranged from a devastating fire at Warsaw’s largest shopping center to the assassination of a Russian defector and electoral interference in Romania. Experts estimate that Russia has been involved in at least 56 acts of sabotage, vandalism, influence operations, and targeted violence across Europe since 2022. Worryingly, these operations are no longer confined to Scandinavia and the Baltics, but have spread westward, targeting nations like France and Germany. This expansion of Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics underscores a growing threat to European security and stability.
Russia’s hybrid warfare encompasses a diverse range of tactics, extending beyond physical sabotage to include cyberattacks and election manipulation. In early 2024, German security forces thwarted a plot to assassinate Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, a major German defense contractor, highlighting the personal risks associated with supporting Ukraine. Papperger’s plan to build a Panther tank factory in Ukraine made him a prime target. Romania also experienced Russian interference, with intelligence agencies uncovering a sophisticated social media campaign, primarily on TikTok, aimed at boosting the candidacy of a pro-Russian politician during the presidential election. These incidents illustrate how Russia seeks to sow discord and undermine Western support for Ukraine.
One of the key challenges in countering Russia’s hybrid warfare lies in the difficulty of definitively attributing these actions to the Kremlin. Moscow often employs low-level operatives and utilizes a "shadow fleet" of oil tankers operating under flags of convenience and complex ownership structures, making it difficult to trace activities back to the Russian state. This deliberate ambiguity often works to Moscow’s advantage, allowing it to deny involvement and create confusion. While some suspected sabotage incidents, like train derailments in Sweden, were later attributed to natural causes, the constant uncertainty surrounding these events creates an atmosphere of suspicion and anxiety. The challenge for European nations is to find the right balance between vigilance and avoiding overreaction.
Cable cutting has emerged as a particularly favored tactic in Russia’s hybrid arsenal. Since 2014, over 160 Russian civilian vessels have been observed engaging in suspicious activities near crucial infrastructure like cables and pipelines in the North Sea. The surge in cable cutting incidents in the Baltics, with three occurring between November and December 2024, underscores the vulnerability of these vital undersea connections. While the immediate impact of these attacks is often primarily financial, disrupting energy supplies and incurring costly repairs, the cumulative effect can be significant. The damaged Estlink2 cable, for instance, is expected to take until July to repair at a cost of tens of millions of euros. This incident, potentially linked to the Eagle S, emphasizes the need for better protection of critical infrastructure.
Europe is grappling with how to respond effectively to this escalating threat. The EU has imposed sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet and individuals linked to destabilizing activities. NATO is strengthening its military presence in the Baltic Sea, and individual countries like Estonia are deploying patrol boats to protect critical infrastructure. However, experts argue that more needs to be done. Increased information sharing and coordination among EU and NATO members are crucial. A comprehensive registry of Russia’s shadow fleet is needed to track their movements and identify potential threats. Beyond military deployments, investment in counterintelligence is seen as vital to effectively combat Russia’s sophisticated hybrid warfare tactics. As the third anniversary of the Ukraine invasion approaches, the need for a unified and robust European response to Russia’s growing shadow war becomes ever more urgent.