Croatia’s Disinformation Landscape: Eroding Trust and Rising Threats
Croatia faces a complex disinformation landscape characterized by declining public trust, a proliferation of online falsehoods, and the increasing use of sophisticated AI-generated content for malicious purposes. This confluence of factors poses a significant threat to the country’s democratic processes and social cohesion. A recent report, compiled by experts at Faktograf, paints a concerning picture of the information ecosystem in Croatia and highlights the urgent need for effective countermeasures.
Public trust in institutions, including the media, has been steadily eroding in Croatia. The Reuters Institute’s Digital News Report 2024 reveals a significant decline in trust in news, dropping from 45% in 2021 to 32% in 2024. This decline mirrors a broader trend of declining trust in democratic institutions, with citizens placing more faith in security structures like the military than in the parliament or government. Traditional media, particularly television, remains a dominant news source, but online platforms, including social media, have become increasingly influential, reaching 80% of the population. However, the reliance on online news coupled with low levels of paid subscriptions raises concerns about the financial sustainability of quality journalism and its ability to counter disinformation effectively.
The Media Pluralism Monitor 2023 further underscores the challenges facing Croatia’s media landscape. The country faces medium risks in fundamental protection, political independence, and social inclusiveness, and a high risk in market plurality. These risks, coupled with the prevalence of Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPPs), create a chilling effect on investigative journalism and critical reporting. The high number of lawsuits against journalists, totaling over 900 in 2023, and the significant financial burden they impose, amounting to at least 5.4 million euros, create an environment where media outlets and journalists may self-censor to avoid costly legal battles. This legal pressure disproportionately affects smaller, independent media outlets, which are often less equipped to withstand such financial strain.
Croatia’s disinformation ecosystem is largely populated by far-right political actors and individuals, amplified by anonymous social media profiles and fringe media outlets. These actors disseminate conspiracy theories and disinformation narratives targeting various topics, including climate change, gender equality, science, and migration. A consistent pattern of overlapping actors spreading disinformation about both COVID-19 and climate change indicates a coordinated and persistent effort to undermine scientific consensus and sow public distrust. This overlap suggests that disinformation campaigns are not isolated incidents but rather part of a broader strategy to manipulate public opinion and erode trust in established institutions.
A concerning new development in Croatia’s disinformation landscape is the rise of AI-generated content. While most detected instances have been used for financial scams or satirical purposes, the potential for malicious use in political contexts is evident. The use of synthetic videos featuring manipulated likenesses of public figures to promote fraudulent schemes highlights the increasing sophistication of disinformation tactics. Although no AI-generated disinformation aimed at influencing the 2024 parliamentary elections was detected, the emergence of an "AI politician" created by a political party as an educational tool underscores the awareness of the potential dangers of AI-driven disinformation.
The challenges facing Croatia require a multi-faceted response. Strengthening media literacy among citizens is crucial to equip them with the critical thinking skills needed to discern credible information from disinformation. Promoting independent, fact-based journalism is essential to counter the spread of false narratives and provide the public with reliable information. Addressing the issue of SLAPPs and protecting journalists from undue legal pressure is vital for fostering a free and vibrant media environment. Furthermore, collaborative efforts between government, civil society organizations, and tech companies are needed to combat the spread of AI-generated disinformation and develop effective countermeasures to this emerging threat.
The declining trust in media and institutions, coupled with the evolving tactics of disinformation actors, poses a serious threat to Croatia’s democratic landscape. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort from all stakeholders to protect the integrity of the information environment and foster a society resilient to manipulation and misinformation. The increasing use of AI in generating disinformation underscores the need for continued monitoring and adaptation of strategies to counter this evolving threat. Protecting the integrity of the information space and fostering a more informed and resilient citizenry are crucial for safeguarding Croatia’s democratic future.