Summary 1:
The update released by U.S. Rep. Don Bacon (R-ne) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) highlights concerns over the impacts of the updated Medicaid policies in the OBBB Act. Bacon emphasized that National Democrats are using outdated and misleading calculations to scare Americans, advising constrained efforts to meet modest work requirements. The estimate suggests that in 2034, 4.8 million healthy adults without dependents may not meet these requirements and could miss employer-sponsored healthcare guidelines, risking health disparities.
The CBO findings mention that 80% of Americans favor modest Medicaid requirements. However, the bill requires recipients to work, volunteer, attend school, or participate in a work program on average 20 hours a week. A 2022 analysis by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) revealed that between 40% and 56% of childless healthy Medicaid recipients aged 19–64 would not comply with current work requirements. The AEI found that 4.2 hours per day, spent on video gaming and watching TV, were spent by non-working recipients compared to the 80 hours of autonomous work mandated by the OBBBA.
This could lead to significant challenges, as nearly half the days required by the OBBBA could be left idle, beyond the 56% compliance rate of non-working recipients. Over 50% of the burden would be left unmet, worsening health inequalities. The CBO also estimated that theseMedian households would move out of their mainstream Medicaid programs in 2034.
Summary 2:
The update further stresses the importance of resolved compliance with Medicaid requirements under the OBBB Act, as CBO estimates that 1.6 million healthy adults would become eligible under other subsides, including private insurance. However, authoritatively, only 1 million of these would meet the 20-hour average requirement.
The housing crisis complicates the issue, as 1.4 million individuals are already ineligible for Medicaid due to recent Biden era restrictions. These restrictions, ending nearly two years ago, prevent such individuals from accessing healthcare. The OBBBA’s $13.1 billion saving from reduced Medicaid costs releases resources to address underinsured and vulnerable populations, enhancing public health and economic stability.
The Tennessee Acrehouse article confirmed that 1.4 million people are ineligible for Medicaid under the 2023 Biden era rules, ending the restrictions and aligning with anticipated governance changes. The update speaks to the legislative response to the crisis, warning that the implications of the new policies must far outnumber their short-term benefits.
