Baltic Sea Cable Incidents: A Stage for Kremlin Disinformation
A series of incidents involving damaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has exposed the vulnerability of critical infrastructure and provided fertile ground for the Kremlin’s disinformation machinery. These incidents, including the severing of fiber-optic cables in November 2024 and the disruption of a power cable between Estonia and Finland in December 2024, have raised concerns about potential sabotage and hybrid attacks targeting European Union infrastructure. As investigations unfold, Russia’s disinformation network has seized the opportunity to manipulate the narrative, deflect blame, and promote its geopolitical agenda.
The Kremlin’s disinformation playbook follows a familiar pattern, observed in previous incidents like the downing of MH17 and the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage. This strategy involves a combination of denial, deflection, and the fabrication of counter-narratives. In the case of the Baltic Sea cable incidents, Russian state-controlled media and pro-Kremlin outlets have employed a two-pronged approach. Initially, they downplay the events by republishing factual reports from Western sources, creating a veneer of journalistic objectivity. This sets the stage for the second phase: pushing deceptive narratives that portray the incidents as Western provocations designed to justify increased military presence in the region, hinder Donald Trump’s peace initiatives, or damage Russia economically and politically.
These disinformation narratives often invoke familiar bogeymen and exploit existing anxieties. The launch of NATO’s Baltic Sentry mission in January 2025, prompted by concerns about the cable incidents, became a focal point for Russian propaganda. Pro-Kremlin outlets published commentaries alleging that NATO’s actions violated international norms, aimed to isolate Russia, and even represented a prelude to World War III. One article falsely claimed that NATO sought to "cut off St. Petersburg from Europe" and establish control over Baltic Sea navigation, feeding into long-standing Russian narratives of Western encirclement.
Further amplifying the disinformation, some Russian outlets accused Western countries, including Germany, Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states, of orchestrating the cable incidents as a provocation. When Swedish authorities boarded a vessel investigated in connection with one of the incidents, Russian media falsely portrayed the action as an act of piracy by Baltic states. These fabricated narratives serve to deflect attention from Russia’s potential involvement and sow discord between Western nations.
While pro-Kremlin media engaged in aggressive disinformation, Russian officials adopted a more measured approach, relying on denial and deflection. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov dismissed accusations of Russian involvement as "absurd" and attempted to shift blame by highlighting alleged "Ukrainian subversive activities" in the Baltic Sea, a tactic reminiscent of the disinformation campaign surrounding the Nord Stream explosions.
This blaming of Ukraine is a recurring theme in Russian disinformation, serving as a convenient scapegoat to deflect attention and reinforce the narrative of a hostile and destabilizing Kyiv. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova echoed Peskov’s denial and criticized the EU and NATO for supporting the "terrorist regime in Kyiv." She further accused NATO of using the cable incidents as a pretext to increase its presence in the Baltic Sea and limit Russian oil exports. Notably, Dmitri Medvedev, a frequent critic of the West, remained silent on these incidents, perhaps mindful of his own prior threats regarding underwater communication cables.
These incidents highlight the vulnerability of interconnected infrastructure in the modern world, which serves as the backbone of commerce, communication, and defense. This interconnectivity also fosters cohesion between allies and partners, enabling coordinated responses to threats. Whether the Baltic Sea cable incidents were accidental or deliberate, the Kremlin’s disinformation apparatus has exploited them to sow division, fuel anxiety, and advance its geopolitical agenda. It is crucial to recognize and counter these disinformation narratives to maintain a clear understanding of the events and their implications.
