Looming Post-Election Disinformation and Violence Threaten Democratic Stability
As the 2024 US presidential election draws to a close, concerns are mounting about the potential for widespread disinformation and violence in the days and weeks following the vote. The Defend Democracy Project, a pro-democracy organization, has issued a stark warning that the post-election period could be even more tumultuous than the aftermath of the 2020 election, which culminated in the January 6th Capitol riot. With several races projected to be extremely close, the final outcome may remain uncertain for days or even weeks as election officials process mail-in ballots and potentially conduct recounts. This period of uncertainty creates a fertile ground for the spread of misinformation and conspiracy theories, potentially inciting violence and undermining public trust in the democratic process.
Olivia Troye, a former homeland security advisor to Vice President Mike Pence, expressed particular concern about the potential for false claims of election fraud and the incitement of violence, especially if Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, does not concede defeat. She cited an FBI and DHS bulletin warning that candidates, election officials, media members, and judges could all become targets of post-election violence. The bulletin also highlighted concerns about attacks on polling places and ballot drop boxes, citing recent incidents of ballot burning in Oregon and Washington.
The closeness of the election results is a key factor in the potential for post-election turmoil. Michael Podhorzer, chair of the Defend Democracy Project, pointed to the 2020 election, where President Biden’s relatively comfortable margin of victory in the Electoral College discouraged Republican election officials from acceding to Trump’s demands to overturn the results. Had the outcome been closer, a single state or even a handful of electors might have had the power to sway the election, potentially creating an even more precarious situation. This time around, with a potential razor-thin margin of victory for either candidate, the risks are even higher. A close result could trigger intense pressure on election officials in key states, possibly leading to legal challenges, recounts, and accusations of fraud, further fueling social unrest.
Public opinion underscores the anxieties surrounding the election’s aftermath. A recent survey by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research revealed that while a vast majority of registered voters believe the losing candidate should accept the election results, a significant portion doubts Trump will concede if he loses. Coupled with widespread concerns about post-election violence and foreign interference, the survey highlights the fragility of public trust in the integrity of the electoral process. The anxieties extend beyond the presidential race, encompassing concerns about political violence directed at elected officials and election workers.
Foreign interference adds another layer of complexity to the post-election landscape. Issue One, a bipartisan organization dedicated to election integrity, has condemned a fake video produced by Russian actors about ballots in Pennsylvania and criticized a Maryland congressman who suggested that North Carolina should preemptively award its electoral votes to Trump. These incidents highlight the ongoing threat of foreign influence campaigns seeking to sow discord and undermine confidence in American democracy. The Supreme Court’s recent decision in Moore v. Harper, rejecting the "independent state legislature theory," is a crucial safeguard against efforts to subvert the popular vote.
Finally, even amidst the tense political climate, moments of bipartisan unity have emerged. Democrats and Republicans alike condemned offensive remarks made by a comedian about Puerto Rico during a Trump rally. This rare display of cross-party condemnation emphasizes the importance of upholding respectful political discourse, even in the face of deep divisions. While these shared moments of disapproval are encouraging, they underscore the larger challenge of maintaining civility and respect in the current polarized political environment.
In conclusion, the 2024 US presidential election presents a significant test for American democracy. The confluence of a potentially close election outcome, widespread disinformation, and heightened anxieties about political violence creates a volatile mix that could easily escalate into social unrest. The responsibility for safeguarding the integrity of the democratic process rests on all stakeholders, including candidates, election officials, the media, and the public. Vigilance, critical thinking, and a commitment to peaceful democratic norms are essential to navigating the challenges of the post-election period and ensuring a smooth and legitimate transfer of power. The weeks following November 5th will be a critical period for the nation, requiring careful attention to emerging threats and a collective commitment to upholding the principles of democracy.
